ACA:EURONEXT PARISCredit Agricole SA Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-10 - not real-time
$144.97
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Arcosa trades at $144.97, comfortably above its 20‑day (≈$139.65) and 50‑day (≈$130.74) moving averages, confirming a bullish price trend, yet the RSI sits at roughly 69.5, signaling near‑overbought conditions, and the MACD histogram has turned negative, giving a bearish signal despite the overall bullish direction. Volatility is elevated at about 29% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1, while the Fear & Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed,” suggesting strong market enthusiasm but heightened risk.
Fundamentally, the company posted 4.4% revenue growth with thin operating (≈8.6%) and profit margins (≈7.7%), carries a sizable debt load ($1.58 B) versus modest cash ($153 M), and trades at a P/E of ~32.6 versus an industry average of ~31.1, indicating a slight premium. The recent $450 M divestiture of its barge business sharpens focus on higher‑margin construction and engineered structures and has prompted an upward revision of full‑year guidance, though an activist investigation into the deal price adds a corporate‑governance risk. The dividend yield is low (0.14%) but the payout ratio is under 5%, making the payout sustainable.
Fundamentally, the company posted 4.4% revenue growth with thin operating (≈8.6%) and profit margins (≈7.7%), carries a sizable debt load ($1.58 B) versus modest cash ($153 M), and trades at a P/E of ~32.6 versus an industry average of ~31.1, indicating a slight premium. The recent $450 M divestiture of its barge business sharpens focus on higher‑margin construction and engineered structures and has prompted an upward revision of full‑year guidance, though an activist investigation into the deal price adds a corporate‑governance risk. The dividend yield is low (0.14%) but the payout ratio is under 5%, making the payout sustainable.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near 52‑week high with overbought RSI
- Bearish MACD crossover
- Elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Raised revenue and EBITDA guidance after barge divestiture
- Shift toward higher‑margin infrastructure segments
- Upside potential of roughly 36% versus current price
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strategic focus on construction and engineered structures with durable demand
- Sustainable dividend despite low yield
- Improving leverage as cash flow from core segments grows
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.40%
Profit Margin7.66%
P/E Ratio32.6
ROE8.62%
ROA4.00%
Debt/Equity59.55
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow$413.7M
Free Cash Flow$55.3M
Industry P/E31.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI69.5
Support$122.40
Resistance$146.92
MA 20$139.65
MA 50$130.74
MA 200$113.11
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.77
Valuation
Target Price$145.50
Upside/Downside0.37%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield0.14%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.29
Volatility29.08%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.